GE2015 latest forecast

This forecast is based on the Ladbrokes Politics odds for all 632 constituencies where odds were advertised when the data was downloaded on Tuesday 5 May and Wednesday 6 May 2015. It is the final forecast ahead of the General Election on 7 May 2015.


The greatest likelihood number of seats is given by the Medium forecast. The mathematics used suggests that it is very likely the number of seats will be within the range given by the low and high forecasts.


Since the last forecast, the Conservatives have gained two seats at the expense of UKIP and the liberal democrats. Additionally, the SNP have gained one seat.


We have also included a graph showing how the medium forecasts have changed since mid-January. The full historical forecasts, including high and low estimates can be found here.


The forecast is calculated based on the description in the forecast methodology page.

Party                                                      Low          Medium          High

Labour                                                    251               261               271

Conservative                                         260               270              279

Liberal Democrats                                 24                30                 36

UKIP                                                             8                13                 19

Green                                                          1                   4                   7

SNP                                                            42                 47                 51

Plaid Cymru                                              3                   4                   6

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