GE2015 March 21st

This forecast is based on the Ladbrokes Politics odds for all 632 constituencies where odds were advertised when the data was downloaded on Saturday 21 March 2015.

 

The greatest liklihood number of seats is given by the Medium forecast. The mathematics used suggest that it is very likely the number of seats will be within the range given by the low and high forecasts.

 

This forecast has seen a small increase in seats for the Conservatives at the expense of Labour, Liberal Democrats and UKIP relative to the last forecast. This means that the medium forecast now expects Labour to win just two seats more than the Conservatives, however when considering the spread of results for 90% confidence (given by high and low estimates); the two parties are neck and neck.

 

We have also included a graph showing how the medium forecasts have changed since mid-January. The full historical forecasts, including high and low estimates can be found here.

 

The forecast is calculated based on the description in the forecast methodology page.

Party                                                      Low          Medium          High

Labour                                                    259               270               280

Conservative                                         258               268              278

Liberal Democrats                                 26                32                 38

UKIP                                                           11                16                 23

Green                                                          1                   2                   6

SNP                                                            31                 37                 42

Plaid Cymru                                              3                   4                   6

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