GE2015 April 9th
This forecast is based on the Ladbrokes Politics odds for all 632 constituencies where odds were advertised when the data was downloaded on Thursday 9 April 2015.
The greatest liklihood number of seats is given by the Medium forecast. The mathematics used suggest that it is very likely the number of seats will be within the range given by the low and high forecasts.
This forecast has seen very little change compared to the last forecast, with the Conservatives taking one additional seat at the expense of UKIP. This means that the medium forecast now expects Labour to win just one seat more than the Conservatives, however when considering the spread of results for 90% confidence (given by high and low estimates); the two parties are neck and neck.
We have also included a graph showing how the medium forecasts have changed since mid-January. The full historical forecasts, including high and low estimates can be found here.
The forecast is calculated based on the description in the forecast methodology page.
Party Low Medium High
Labour 259 270 280
Conservative 259 269 279
Liberal Democrats 26 32 38
Green 1 2 6
SNP 31 37 42
Plaid Cymru 2 4 6