GE2015 April 26th

This forecast is based on the Ladbrokes Politics odds for all 632 constituencies where odds were advertised when the data was downloaded on Friday 24 April (for first 326 constituencies in alphabetic order) and Sunday 26 April 2015.

 

The greatest likelihood number of seats is given by the Medium forecast. The mathematics used suggests that it is very likely the number of seats will be within the range given by the low and high forecasts.

 

There have been some significant changes since the last forecast. A shift of 9 seats from Labour to the SNP has taken place. This leaves the Conservatives higher than Labour on seats and in relation to who becomes Prime Minister; it could impact on the negotiating powers of the respective parties in any post-election deals.

 

UKIP, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives have seen their number decrease by one. In contrast the Greens have seen their forecasted seats double to 4. The odds for UKIP were observed to have widened during data collection and the greens to have shortened, although not to the extent needed to double their presence in Westminster. An underlying change from the last forecast is that all candidates are now known as nominations are closed and quoted. In the previous forecast the odds were quoted in 56% of seats for the greens while now 100% of the seats had odds for the greens quoted. Furthermore, the addition of odds quoted for all the independent candidates has increased the number of 'others' winning seats reducing the total sum of the main parties being forecasted.

 

We have also included a graph showing how the medium forecasts have changed since mid-January. The full historical forecasts, including high and low estimates can be found here.

 

The forecast is calculated based on the description in the forecast methodology page.

Party                                                      Low          Medium          High

Labour                                                    251               261               270

Conservative                                         259               268              278

Liberal Democrats                                 25                31                 37

UKIP                                                             9                14                 21

Green                                                          1                   4                   7

SNP                                                            41                 46                 50

Plaid Cymru                                              2                   4                   6

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