GE2015 February forecast
This forecast is based on the Ladbrokes Politics odds for all 632 constituencies where odds were advertised when the data was downloaded on Sunday 15 February 2015.
The greatest liklihood number of seats is given by the Medium forecast. The mathematics used suggest that it is very likely the number of seats will be within the range given by the low and high forecasts.
The model is suggesting that the SNP and Greens are gaining momentum at the expense of Labour. The model is now expecting the SNP to win 5 additional seats, Greens to win 3 additional seats and Labour to win 10 less seats relative to the forecast calculated on 13 January 2015. There was little change in the results of the Liberal Democrats, Conservatives and UKIP (No change, plus one and minus one respectively).
The forecast suggests that a hung parliament is very likely and that the only two-party coalition capable of commanding a majority would be a coalition between Labour and the Conservatives.
The forecast is calculated based on the description in the forecast methodology page.
Labour 252 264 277
Conservative 243 256 268
Liberal Democrats 30 38 45
UKIP 23 31 40
Green 3 5 9
SNP 26 31 37
Plaid Cymru 3 4 6
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Party Low Medium High