GE2015 February forecast

This forecast is based on the Ladbrokes Politics odds for all 632 constituencies where odds were advertised when the data was downloaded on Sunday 15 February 2015.

 

The greatest liklihood number of seats is given by the Medium forecast. The mathematics used suggest that it is very likely the number of seats will be within the range given by the low and high forecasts.

 

The model is suggesting that the SNP and Greens are gaining momentum at the expense of Labour. The model is now expecting the SNP to win 5 additional seats, Greens to win 3 additional seats and Labour to win 10 less seats relative to the forecast calculated on 13 January 2015. There was little change in the results of the Liberal Democrats, Conservatives and UKIP (No change, plus one and minus one respectively).

 

The forecast suggests that a hung parliament is very likely and that the only two-party coalition capable of commanding a majority would be a coalition between Labour and the Conservatives.

 

The forecast is calculated based on the description in the forecast methodology page.

Party                                                      Low          Medium          High

Labour                                                    252               264               277

Conservative                                         243               256              268

Liberal Democrats                                 30                38                 45

UKIP                                                           23                31                 40

Green                                                          3                   5                   9

SNP                                                            26                 31                 37

Plaid Cymru                                              3                   4                   6

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