GE2015 March 5th

This forecast is based on the Ladbrokes Politics odds for all 632 constituencies where odds were advertised when the data was downloaded on Thursday 5 March 2015.

 

The greatest liklihood number of seats is given by the Medium forecast. The mathematics used suggest that it is very likely the number of seats will be within the range given by the low and high forecasts.

 

There has been some significant changes since the last forecast - this is mainly due to removing the bias of human psychology to back the under dog. More explanation as to how this has been achieved can be seen on the methodology page. To assess the impacts, the previous forecast was re-calculated using the new methodology, which benefitted Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and the SNP. It did not affect Plaid Cymru and has penalised UKIP and the Greens.

 

Relative to the last forecast re-calculated, during the past month the SNP has gained four seats and the conservatives have gained one seat. This is at the expense of three labour seats. No changes in number of seats were observed for the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, Greens or Plaid Cymru.

 

The forecast is calculated based on the description in the forecast methodology page.

Party                                                      Low          Medium          High

Labour                                                    260               271               281

Conservative                                         255               266              276

Liberal Democrats                                 27                33                 39

UKIP                                                           11                17                 24

Green                                                          1                   2                   5

SNP                                                            31                 37                 42

Plaid Cymru                                              3                   4                   6

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